Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 10.3 | 9.7% | 98 | 0.85% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 10.9 | 10% | 101 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 63 | 28.1 | 23.6% | 239 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 57 | 24.4 | 21.3% | 216 | 1.59% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 13.4 | 12.8% | 130 | 1.24% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 10.7 | 9.5% | 96 | 0.76% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 9.3 | 7.6% | 77 | 0.67% |
| 70+ | 20 | 6.9 | 5.5% | 56 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 266 | 113.9 | 100% | 1012 | 0.97% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 20660 | 67214 | 615 | 162 | 592 |
| Dec 29 | 20827 | 67328 | 617 | 163 | 758 |
| Dec 30 | 20995 | 67443 | 617 | 163 | 863 |
| Dec 31 | 21032 | 67561 | 617 | 163 | 815 |
| Jan 01 | 21033 | 67602 | 617 | 163 | 707 |
| Jan 02 | 21073 | 67644 | 617 | 163 | 746 |
| Jan 03 | 21339 | 67723 | 621 | 163 | 1012 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 13768 | 39108 | 592 | 141 | 378 |
| Dec 29 | 13835 | 39159 | 596 | 143 | 440 |
| Dec 30 | 13940 | 39207 | 596 | 144 | 466 |
| Dec 31 | 13945 | 39271 | 597 | 144 | 430 |
| Jan 01 | 13945 | 39296 | 597 | 144 | 353 |
| Jan 02 | 13951 | 39311 | 597 | 144 | 358 |
| Jan 03 | 14084 | 39348 | 601 | 145 | 491 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 4.9 | 9.4% | 46 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 5.0 | 8.1% | 40 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 10.7 | 18.7% | 92 | 1.29% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 8.7 | 16.1% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 9.1 | 16.1% | 79 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 8.3 | 13.4% | 66 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 6.7 | 11.2% | 55 | 0.65% |
| 70+ | 9 | 3.9 | 6.7% | 33 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 133 | 57.4 | 100% | 491 | 0.76% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 10451 | 26088 | 465 | 115 | 208 |
| Dec 29 | 10519 | 26120 | 468 | 116 | 260 |
| Dec 30 | 10568 | 26154 | 469 | 116 | 294 |
| Dec 31 | 10621 | 26191 | 475 | 116 | 326 |
| Jan 01 | 10643 | 26201 | 475 | 116 | 327 |
| Jan 02 | 10671 | 26221 | 475 | 116 | 329 |
| Jan 03 | 10714 | 26255 | 477 | 116 | 355 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.9 | 5.1% | 18 | 0.33% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.7 | 4.2% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 8.7 | 22.3% | 79 | 1.75% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 7.9 | 18% | 64 | 1.18% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.9 | 13.2% | 47 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 7.4 | 17.2% | 61 | 0.9% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 5.3 | 12.1% | 43 | 0.68% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.4 | 7.9% | 28 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 43 | 42.1 | 100% | 355 | 0.78% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 22106 | 79788 | 808 | 139 | 941 |
| Dec 29 | 22210 | 79950 | 819 | 139 | 1019 |
| Dec 30 | 22297 | 80140 | 824 | 139 | 1040 |
| Dec 31 | 22428 | 80317 | 828 | 139 | 1007 |
| Jan 01 | 22429 | 80338 | 828 | 139 | 922 |
| Jan 02 | 22639 | 80392 | 828 | 139 | 975 |
| Jan 03 | 23040 | 80538 | 839 | 139 | 1330 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 35 | 13.7 | 8.1% | 108 | 0.91% |
| 10-19 | 55 | 18.1 | 11.1% | 147 | 0.89% |
| 20-29 | 85 | 36.0 | 22.9% | 304 | 1.43% |
| 30-39 | 78 | 35.0 | 21.7% | 288 | 2.12% |
| 40-49 | 56 | 22.9 | 14.3% | 190 | 1.4% |
| 50-59 | 43 | 19.1 | 11.4% | 152 | 1.07% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 11.6 | 6.5% | 86 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 25 | 7.1 | 4.1% | 55 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 401 | 163.6 | 100% | 1330 | 1.12% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 71668 | 455419 | 2239 | 409 | 3730 |
| Dec 29 | 72224 | 456186 | 2246 | 409 | 4163 |
| Dec 30 | 72607 | 456846 | 2256 | 409 | 4033 |
| Dec 31 | 72611 | 457832 | 2263 | 409 | 3659 |
| Jan 01 | 72613 | 458117 | 2263 | 409 | 3211 |
| Jan 02 | 72759 | 458497 | 2264 | 409 | 2858 |
| Jan 03 | 73455 | 458938 | 2266 | 416 | 3474 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 115 | 51.9 | 14.5% | 503 | 0.84% |
| 10-19 | 171 | 63.3 | 18.4% | 639 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 136 | 84.0 | 24.3% | 845 | 0.81% |
| 30-39 | 113 | 58.1 | 17.4% | 606 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 70 | 39.9 | 11.6% | 403 | 0.61% |
| 50-59 | 54 | 23.7 | 7.1% | 248 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 12.9 | 4.4% | 152 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 13 | 6.6 | 2.2% | 78 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 696 | 340.3 | 100% | 3474 | 0.64% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28 | 1103754 | 3827177 | 54008 | 11119 | 43702 |
| Dec 29 | 1112659 | 3834072 | 54200 | 11151 | 51041 |
| Dec 30 | 1120669 | 3840482 | 54359 | 11173 | 54125 |
| Dec 31 | 1125161 | 3848553 | 54568 | 11182 | 52891 |
| Jan 01 | 1128127 | 3851035 | 54583 | 11185 | 49636 |
| Jan 02 | 1132361 | 3853209 | 54590 | 11185 | 48919 |
| Jan 03 | 1142290 | 3858103 | 54871 | 11246 | 56725 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 987 | 602.4 | 9.4% | 5319 | 0.83% |
| 10-19 | 1405 | 837.1 | 13% | 7363 | 0.97% |
| 20-29 | 1810 | 1339.6 | 20.2% | 11438 | 1.51% |
| 30-39 | 1732 | 1199.3 | 18% | 10208 | 1.35% |
| 40-49 | 1393 | 948.7 | 14.1% | 8007 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 1222 | 813.0 | 12.1% | 6865 | 0.84% |
| 60-69 | 808 | 531.9 | 7.9% | 4496 | 0.59% |
| 70+ | 564 | 352.6 | 5.3% | 2999 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 9929 | 6628.4 | 100% | 56725 | 0.97% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10976"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges